If the German Federal Statistical Office hadn’t officially announced it last Friday, you wouldn’t have believed it. In Germany, the part of collective wage agreements that leads to a permanent collective wage increase actually amounted to only 2.4 per cent last year. This affects around 43 per cent of all employees whose employment contracts are subject to collective bargaining.
Searching for the scapegoat – wages in the ECB’s focus weiterlesenKategorie: Englisch
The ECB’s dogmatism reaches new dimensions
The data on price trends in Europe are more than encouraging. The inflation rate at consumer level in the European Monetary Union (EMU) was only 2.9 percent in October. According to Eurostat, producer prices were down 12.4 percent in September compared to September of last year. This confirms the view expressed in many articles here that the price surge in the eurozone and in many other countries was a temporary event that will recede again with the expected fall in commodity prices at all levels, including consumer prices.
The ECB’s dogmatism reaches new dimensions weiterlesenEastern Europe facing a new crisis
In our Atlas der Weltwirtschaft 2022/2023 we included a special section dealing with the countries in Eastern Europe that are members of the EU and in some cases even members of EMU. Some of these countries have recorded enormous losses in international competitiveness over the past two decades, as can be seen from the real effective exchange rate of their currencies. A scenario of this kind is now looming again.
Eastern Europe facing a new crisis weiterlesen„Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.“
Whoever this bon mot is attributed to, it makes one smile and takes the heat out of a debate that should be about the matter at hand and not about dogmatism. Predicting economic development in times as turbulent as the present is indeed a delicate business for anyone who dares to do it. But since assessments of the future development of a country’s or continent’s economy are important for forward-looking economic policy, it is precisely then that the quality of forecasts on which decision-makers rely must be closely scrutinised.
„Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.“ weiterlesenThe ECB gambles away its credibility
In contrast to the nine previous hikes, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to raise key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points on 14 September 2023 was no longer unanimous in the ECB’s Governing Council but, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde, only approved by a „solid“ majority. The public response is also no longer as unanimous as before. Some experts, such as the President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) Marcel Fratzscher, emphasise the risk that the ECB is taking with this step regarding the economic development in the Eurozone. Markus Demary, an expert at the Institute of the German Economy (IW), which is close to employers, criticises the decision more or less directly: „The ECB has chosen to take inflationary pressure out of the economy and is accepting a recession for the sake of price level stability“.
The ECB gambles away its credibility weiterlesenThe recession deepens
The downward slide of the German economy continues. Production and incoming orders in German industry are still on course for recession in the first month of the third quarter. The latest sentiment indicators, such as the ifo index and the PMI markit, which were surveyed in August, point clearly downwards. So it can no longer be ruled out that the recession will continue even at a pace much faster than now.
The recession deepens weiterlesenStill on a knife’s edge? The federal government fails to recognise the economic situation
Anyone in the civilised world who wants to drive a car must prove that he can correctly assess the direction of movement and speed of his vehicle, master the aids of stabilisation and gain a certain overview of the traffic situation. The obligation to pass a driving test meets with general approval among the population, because the person willing to drive a car can put not only himself but also others in danger if he does not have the required skills and knowledge. Those who steer a national economy do not have to prove anything of the sort, although the general danger to the life and welfare of the population posed by their errors of judgement and misconduct is enormous.
Still on a knife’s edge? The federal government fails to recognise the economic situation weiterlesenFalling energy prices at the producer and consumer level – what should feed continued inflation?
The President of the Deutsche Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, said in a speech in Frankfurt on 5 July 2023 that it was too early to sound the all-clear with regard to the price development in Germany, „Inflation has broadened overall.“ And he adds: „According to our June projection, the inflation rate in Germany will remain high for the time being. The ECB’s June projection for the euro area gives a similar result.“
Falling energy prices at the producer and consumer level – what should feed continued inflation? weiterlesen“Inflation” will soon be over – when will the ECB react?
A simple series of figures made available recently by the Federal Statistical Office of Germany brings it to light: what has been called “inflation” in public in recent months will, according to all we know, only exist for a few more months at most.
“Inflation” will soon be over – when will the ECB react? weiterlesenReform of the European fiscal rules? The German finance minister is blocking a reasonable reform
An english version of our comment on an article by Christian Lindner, German finance minister, is available.