Whoever this bon mot is attributed to, it makes one smile and takes the heat out of a debate that should be about the matter at hand and not about dogmatism. Predicting economic development in times as turbulent as the present is indeed a delicate business for anyone who dares to do it. But since assessments of the future development of a country’s or continent’s economy are important for forward-looking economic policy, it is precisely then that the quality of forecasts on which decision-makers rely must be closely scrutinised.
„Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.“ weiterlesen